Scottish Grand National Tips 2027: Ayr Preview, Trends and Each-Way Angles

Home › Big Races › Scottish Grand National Tips

By The Guv'nor · Last updated October 2026

Scottish Grand National tips start with the facts. The 2027 race is at Ayr on Saturday 17 April, seven days after the Grand National: a handicap chase of nearly four miles for up to 30 runners. In the last 12 renewals every winner was rated 129 to 146, and half had won their previous race.

October 2026: first version, written before entries. The trends cover the 12 renewals run from April 2014 to April 2026 (no race in 2020).

Scottish Grand National 2027 date, trip and conditions

Ayr's 2027 fixture list has the big race on Saturday 17 April, the second day of the festival (it notes that dates can change). The Grand National is on Saturday 10 April, so it's the usual one-week turnaround from Aintree.

The trip was 4m 110y (about 6,540 metres) in 2014 and 2015. The ground is usually decent: ten of 12 renewals had a going description starting Good or Good to Soft. The exceptions were 2024 (Soft) and 2026 (Heavy, Soft in places), when just six of 16 got round in 9m 5.23s, against 8m 2.50s to 8m 25.96s for the nine earlier runnings over this trip. Across all 12, only 130 of 296 starters finished. My guide to the going explains the descriptions.

The main preps in 2027 are the Cheltenham Festival (16 to 19 March), the Midlands Grand National (Saturday 20 March) and the Eider Chase at Newcastle in late February.

Scottish Grand National trends from the last 12 renewals

I built these from every renewal's result and all 296 runners' form records. Weight is what the horse was allotted, before any jockey's claim; OR is its official rating on the day; SP is the starting price.

Which trends beat the base rate?

A trend only matters if the group beats the 4.1% you'd get picking a runner with a pin. Every field had 16 or more runners, so "placed" means the first four, winners included.

How I read it: the 129-146 band is drawn around the winners, so of course it catches all 12. The useful bit is the top end: the 34 runners rated 147 or higher haven't won one between them. Giving lumps of weight over four miles is hard. Winning last time out is next best. The age and Eider figures rest on nine and 12 horses, so they're nudges, not rules. Cheltenham Festival runners place plenty (13 from 75) but rarely win. Four winners went off 25/1 or bigger, all between 2014 and 2019; since 2021 they've been 4/1 to 20/1. Willie Mullins ran seven in 2024 and six in 2025 and won both. Twelve races is a small sample, and all of it is hindsight, so treat any Scottish Grand National predictions built on these numbers as nudges too. Aintree's are in my Grand National trends.

Aintree to Ayr: do Grand National runners bounce back a week later?

Only seven horses in the 12 renewals went straight from the Grand National to the Scottish National. In 2022 Ayr was the week before Aintree, so nobody could.

None of the seven had completed the Grand National; no horse that got round at Aintree turned up at Ayr in this period. The one winner, Vicente, had 14 days between the races in 2017, not seven. The six that came back after seven or eight days gave no winner and no place, the 5/1 favourite Vintage Clouds included. Add the eight runners from other races at the Aintree Festival and it's 15 runners, one winner, two placed. Seven horses proves nothing, but I wouldn't take a short price about a National faller a week later, and the 2027 gap is seven days. The Aintree side is in my Grand National preview.

The handicap: marks, weights and the long handicap

The weights are framed from the top-rated horse. The top weight among the runners carried 12-0 in each of the last four renewals and 11-12 in every earlier year bar 2019; at the bottom, horses out of the handicap carried 10-0 up to 2022 and 10-2 from 2023. Six of the 12 winners carried under 11-0, but so did 209 of the 296 runners, so the strike rate is lower down the weights: 2.9% under 11-0 against 6.9% for 11-0 and up (N=87).

The long handicap is where the minimum bites. A horse whose rating says it should carry less than the minimum carries the minimum anyway and runs "out of the handicap", with more weight than its mark deserves. In 2014 Tidal Bay, rated 166, set the top weight at 11-12, so everything rated below 140 was out of the handicap: 19 of the 29 runners. Al Co won from 2lb out by my sums.

Across the 12 renewals I count 53 runners carrying more than their rating implied. One won (Al Co) and five more placed. I work from race-day ratings, which can change after the weights come out, so any single horse's figure is give or take a pound or two. The basics of marks and weights are in handicaps explained, and how a horse ends up on a good mark is in the well handicapped horses guide.

Each-way terms in a big-field spring handicap

Under standard terms a handicap with 16 or more runners pays a quarter of the odds for the first four, and all 12 renewals had 16 to 30 runners. Take a price ante-post and the place terms you took stand, whatever the final field.

Extra places are the norm. The result pages I used carry Sky Bet banners for six places in 2018, 2019 and 2026, and seven in every year from 2021 to 2025. Firms paying extra places can be shorter on price, so compare the whole offer. A hindsight check on what those places are worth:

That's hindsight at SP, not a system, but it shows that when only about four in ten finish, fifth to seventh often go to outsiders.

A worked example: 1pt each way at 25/1 with £5 points is £10 staked. A win returns £166.25 (£130 for the win half plus £36.25 for the place half at 25/4); a place alone returns £36.25, a £26.25 profit; unplaced loses £10. The break-even sums by field size are in each-way betting explained, and Rule 4 deductions covers late withdrawals.

How I approach the race

Look, I'm essentially a statistics/maths geek. Every horse in a handicap runs off a mark, so this race comes down to prices and probabilities. I run my tips service for profit month to month, not a high win rate; anyone can talk about win rates when they tip odds-on horses all day. Here I'm happy with a bigger price each way, because when an outsider places we can make more than an odds-on winner would pay.

The outsiders in my newsletter come from a new but proven system that picks out horses that have won or come close at a weight or mark higher than the one they're running off today. I ran a rough public-data version of that flag over the 296 runners here. It isn't the system itself, just one question: had the horse won or finished second in a chase off a higher rating than it ran off at Ayr?

• Flagged: 81 runners, 2 winners (2.5%), 15 placed (18.5%). At 1pt each way at SP they lost 48.6pt from 162pt staked.
• Not flagged: 215 runners, 10 winners (4.7%), 33 placed (15.3%). They lost 42.5pt from 430pt staked.

If I am honest, that flag didn't earn its keep here: it placed a bit more often and won less, on a small hindsight sample. I'd rather show you that than hide it. No filter works in every race, and understanding that losers are a thing is the key to being a winner longer term.

So I bet on every horse I tip, stake in points (1pt = £5 on a £100 bank, say) and never go all in on a feeling. If I'm not sure about one, I skip it. If nothing stands out, it's a stinky day for the ponies and I keep my money in my pocket. What 1pt means covers the staking, and my betting strategy rules cover the rest.

My actual selections go out to Winners Club members in my morning newsletter.

Price

Price of the service is a fixed £9.99 monthly and that will never change and you can cancel anytime if it's not for you. To break that down for you that's about 32p a day for a whole month or a going to have a McDonalds with a mate. Crazy right?

I've priced it cheap because I want it accessible to absolutely everyone and build a community of winners - If I am honest the £9.99 is just there as a filter if you like so that only serious people sign up. If the paid version isn't for you just yet, then feel free to sign up to the free service.

My promise.

Look, I can't guarantee every tip every day is going to win (anyone that can is a fraudster). But I can promise you that every horse I will tip I am betting on myself and through my data analysis techniques it should be in with a very strong chance of bolting up and winning and over a long enough period you will be profitable.

Here's what some of our paid members have been saying:

Give it a go, what have you got to lose? It's only a tenner a month. Feel free to try out the free version first!

- The Guv'nor

Scottish Grand National tips: your questions

When is the Scottish Grand National 2027?

Saturday 17 April 2027 at Ayr, the second day of the festival. Ayr says fixture dates can change, so check nearer the time.

Is the Ayr Grand National the same race?

Yes. Plenty of people search for Ayr Grand National tips, but the race is the Scottish Grand National. It moved to Ayr from Bogside in 1966.

Who won the Scottish Grand National in 2026?

Kap Vert, a six-year-old trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White and ridden by Sean Houlihan, won on Heavy ground at 20/1, carrying 10-12 off an official rating of 129.

How many places does the Scottish Grand National pay each way?

Four at a quarter of the odds under standard terms for a 16-plus-runner handicap, though many firms pay extra places.

More in this guide

• Big races calendar for 2026/27
• Grand National preview and each-way places
• Grand National trends
• Welsh Grand National preview
• Irish Grand National preview
• Cheltenham Festival handicaps