Grand National Trends 2027: Which Trends Still Hold in a 34-Runner Race?

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By The Guv'nor · Last updated October 2026

Across the 13 Grand Nationals run since every fence was modified after 2012 (2013 to 2026, 495 runners), only a handful of Grand National trends beat their base rate: a short price, a win last time out, a Cheltenham Festival prep, an Irish trainer and a high rating. "Aged 8 to 11", "under 11st" and "won over 3m" mostly describe the whole field.

That's the short version of my own Grand National trends and stats table, built race by race from the official results and each horse's form record. Every figure below has its sample size next to it, because 13 races is not many, and a trend that 85% of the field already fits isn't telling you much. For the race itself (Saturday 10 April 2027, the each-way terms and the road to Aintree) see my Grand National tips and preview. For the rest of the jumps calendar, see big races 2026/27.

What changed: softer fences and the 34-runner field

Plenty of trends lists go back 20 years or more, but the race they describe doesn't exist any more. Two changes matter.

First, the fences. The Jockey Club modified every fence on the National course after the 2012 race, changing the inner frames "from timber frames to more forgiving flexible plastic or natural birch". So 2013 is the first modern National, and that's where my numbers start. There was no race in 2020.

Second, the 2024 package. In October 2023 The Jockey Club announced, among other things:

• the maximum field cut from 40 to 34 runners
• the first fence moved 60 yards closer to the start
• a standing start for every race over the National fences
• fence 11 lowered by two inches on the take-off side, from 5ft to 4ft 10in
• the minimum handicap rating raised from 125 to 130
• extra scrutiny for horses that made jumping errors in 50% or more of their last eight races

The off time also came forward, and The Jockey Club lists the 2027 National for 4pm on 10 April.

What the field looks like now

Put plainly: a smaller field of better horses, more of them Irish and more of them lumping big weights. Three races is a tiny sample, so I'm not calling anything settled. But it changes what the old trends mean. When 41% of the field carries 11st or more, "winners carry under 11st" was always going to struggle.

Every National winner since 2013: my hand-built table

Weights are what the horse carried in stones and pounds. OR is the official rating it ran off. SP is the industry starting price, not Betfair. The last column is the horse's final run before Aintree, with the number of days between that run and the National, then any earlier runs over the National fences.

A few things jump out before we even get to base rates:

• The last three winners all carried 11st 6lb or more. Aintree says the 11st 12lb I Am Maximus carried in 2026 is a record this century.
• Six of the 13 won last time out, and six had their final prep at the Cheltenham Festival.
• Rule The World had never won a chase in 13 attempts over fences before he won the National.
• The only two winners who had already run in a National were repeat winners: Tiger Roll in 2019 and I Am Maximus in 2026.

Grand National trends for age, weight and rating (with sample sizes)

Here's how to read the next two tables. "Winners" is out of 13. "Top four" is out of 52 (four places in each of 13 races), which gives a bigger sample. "Share of runners" is how much of the field fitted the trend in the first place. If the winners' share is about the same as the runners' share, the trend isn't telling you anything: it's a base rate. Across all 495 runners the average chance of winning was 13 in 495, or 2.6%.

Age: a trend that's really a description of the field

"Twelve of the last 13 winners were aged 8 to 11" sounds like a cast-iron rule. Then you notice that 85% of the runners were aged 8 to 11. Those horses won 12 times from 422 runs, a 2.8% strike rate against the 2.6% average. That's a base rate with a rounding error on top. Noble Yeats in 2022 is the only seven-year-old winner in the sample, from 34 runners that age, which is about par too.

Split it finer and there's more going on. Eight- and nine-year-olds won nine times from 238 runners (3.8%), while ten-year-olds won once from 121 (0.8%). Those are small numbers, but they tell you more than the headline does.

The only age group that did worse than its share is 12 and over: no winners from 39, and three top-four finishes. I'd lean against them, but 39 runners is nowhere near enough to call it.

Weight: the old rule has flipped

"Carried under 11st" is the classic National trend, and in this sample it's actually under-represented: 62% of the winners against 70% of the runners. Meanwhile the 40 runners carrying 11st 7lb or more produced three winners (Many Clouds, Nick Rockett and I Am Maximus in 2026), a 7.5% strike rate on a small sample.

It makes sense once you remember how a handicap works: the weight follows the rating, so the top weights are the best horses in the race. With softer fences, a minimum rating of 130 and a smaller field, the better horses seem to be getting the job done. My guide to horse racing handicaps explained covers how marks turn into weights.

Rating: the top end is where the edge was

Runners rated 160 or higher won three times from 36 runs (8.3%). Runners rated under 145 won twice from 102 (2.0%). With hindsight, all three winners since the 2024 changes came from near the top of the handicap (rated 159, 163 and 168), which is the same story as the weight row. Three races, though, so treat it as a lean rather than a law.

Prep runs and previous Aintree form

The two "trends" that are pure filler

"Had won over 3m or further" is on nearly every trends list. In this sample 77% of the winners had won a chase over 3m or further, and so had 77% of the runners. It's a qualification, not an edge. "Ran in the last 60 days" is the same: 77% of winners against 80% of runners. You'll find both on plenty of trends lists, and they won't knock out many horses.

Cheltenham and last-time-out winners

These two did beat their share. Horses whose last run was at the Cheltenham Festival made up 28% of the field and 46% of the winners. Last-time-out winners made up 16% of the field and won six of the 13 races, a 7.7% strike rate.

The catch is that both trends overlap with the market. A horse that just won at the Festival is usually near the top of the betting on National day, so you're partly paying for the same thing twice. More on that in the price section.

Aintree experience: good for places, not wins

This one surprised me. Horses that had already run over the National fences (in the National, the Becher, the Topham, the Grand Sefton or the Foxhunters') were 41% of the field and 44% of the top-four finishers, which is about par. But they won only four of the 13 races, two of those by Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus going back to win again. If you want to know how the National course differs from the Mildmay course, my Aintree course guide covers it.

Ireland: a real trend that's turning into a base rate

Irish-trained runners won eight of the 13 and filled 62% of the top-four places, from 44% of the field. Every winner from 2016 to 2026 was trained in Ireland or by Lucinda Russell in Scotland. But look back at the first table: Irish-trained horses were 65% of the field in 2024 to 2026. The more Irish runners there are, the more Irish winners you'd expect anyway. The form lines that matter now are the Irish ones, from Leopardstown and Fairyhouse through to the Irish Grand National, and my Irish racing tips page is where I cover that racing.

How big do National winners go? Price trends

Winners in this sample went off at anything from 4/1 to 66/1. The middle winning price was 14/1 (One For Arthur), and six of the 13 were 20/1 or bigger. Nothing bigger than 66/1 won. To be clear, these are industry SPs, not the early prices you can sometimes get.

Two honest points about that table. The 8/1-or-shorter band is only 22 horses, so four winners there is a nice story rather than a proven edge. And one 66/1 winner (Auroras Encore) is what keeps the 40/1 to 66/1 band from looking much worse.

The 18/1 to 33/1 band is worth a closer look: four winners and 18 top-four finishes from 157 runners. That's 11% of those runners finishing in the first four, only a touch above the 10.5% average for the whole sample (52 of 495), so it isn't an edge on its own. Where it gets interesting is the each-way maths, because a place at those prices still pays. If you go that way, the extra-places maths and who finished 5th to 8th in recent years are on my Grand National tips page, and the break-even numbers are in each-way betting explained. The 80/1-and-bigger crowd managed two top-four finishes from 56 runners.

Favourites in the National

Counting joint-favourites, 16 horses went off favourite in these 13 races. Four of them won: Tiger Roll (2019), Corach Rambler (2023) and I Am Maximus (2024 and 2026). Nine of the 16 finished in the first four, and 13 of the 16 completed the course. A 1pt win bet on every one of them at SP would have made +11.5pts.

Three of the last four Nationals have gone to the favourite, and Aintree counts I Am Maximus as the seventh winning market leader this century. Before you take that as gospel, remember that the same four-year spell threw up a 33/1 winner. It's 16 bets. If you want favourites across all of racing, with proper sample sizes, see how often favourites win.

My trends filter for 2027

Look, I'm essentially a statistics/maths geek. I used to be a Quantitative Researcher at a Tier 1 investment bank in the UK, and the first question I ask of any trend is the one in the tables above: what's the base rate? Most trends lists skip that step, and that's why they sound so convincing.

So I don't use trends to pick a horse. I use them to decide which bits of a 34-runner field deserve my time. The ones that beat their share in the modern race (a high rating, a win last time, a Festival prep, an Irish yard) get a closer look. The ones that just describe the field (age 8 to 11, won over 3m, ran recently) don't knock anything out. Then it becomes a pricing job, because a horse that ticks every box at 6/1 can be a worse bet than one that ticks half of them at 33/1.

It's the same thinking behind my daily newsletter. It usually has 'Banker' bets, which are my shorter-priced solid ones, and outsiders from a system that picks out horses that have won or come close at a higher weight or mark than they're running off today. A 34-runner National is outsider territory, so I'm after each-way value, because when they place we make more profit than an odds-on shot winning. I bet every horse I tip, I stake in points (1pt might be £5 on a £100 bank), and if I'm not sure about one, I skip it. Not every trend is going to land. Understanding that losers are a thing is the key to being a winner longer term.

I won't list which 2027 horses fit the filter here. My actual selections go to Winners Club members.

Method and data

Runners, ages, weights, official ratings, SPs, finishing positions and each horse's previous runs come from Sporting Life's race results and form records for the 13 Nationals from 2013 to 2026. I checked them against the Jockey Club's result pages wherever those pages give the details. "Top four" means finishing 1st to 4th. "Trained in Ireland" is based on where each trainer's runners raced in the 12 months before the National, and I checked it against the Jockey Club's 2024 to 2026 result pages. National fences form only counts runs in Sporting Life's records. Horses that ran more than once count once per National. Everything here is hindsight on a small sample: 13 winners.

Grand National stats: quick answers

What age wins the Grand National most often?

Eight- and nine-year-olds have won nine of the 13 Nationals since 2013. They made up 48% of the runners, so they won more than their share, but on 13 races that's a modest edge. No horse aged 12 or older won in that period.

What weight do Grand National winners carry?

Since 2013 the winners carried anything from 10st 3lb to 11st 12lb. The last three all carried 11st 6lb or more, and Aintree says I Am Maximus's 11st 12lb in 2026 is a record this century.

Which trainer has won the most Grand Nationals?

Willie Mullins has four wins (Hedgehunter in 2005, I Am Maximus in 2024 and 2026, and Nick Rockett in 2025). That equals the record shared with Ginger McCain and Fred Rimell, according to Aintree.

Do Irish horses win the Grand National more often?

Irish-trained horses won eight of the 13 Nationals from 2013 to 2026, from 44% of the runners. They now make up most of the field (65% in 2024 to 2026), so you'd expect most winners to come from Ireland for that reason alone.

More in this guide

• Grand National tips 2027: each-way places and how I approach the race
• Aintree course guide: the National course and the Mildmay course
• Irish Grand National tips and preview
• Scottish Grand National tips and preview
• Cheltenham Festival trends: which ones make money
• How often do favourites win?