Cheltenham Festival Trends 2027: Race-by-Race Trends and Which Ones Make Money

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By The Guv'nor · Last updated October 2026

The Cheltenham Festival trends worth using are the ones that beat the base rate, and there aren't many. Over the last ten Festivals (2017-2026: 279 races, 4,470 runners) the SP favourite won 86 races and backing every runner lost 26% of stakes. Here's every race's last ten winners, with the runners and profit or loss behind each trend.

Why most Cheltenham trends are useless

"Nine of the last ten winners won last time out" sounds like a system. Two questions kill most trends like it.

Out of how many? Ten renewals is a sample of ten, and one result moves a "trend" from 90% to 80%. If half the field also won last time out, nine from ten is just who turned up. That's the base rate, and I've flagged it race by race.

Was it picked after the event? Slice ten winners enough ways and something always lines up. That's hindsight, not an edge.

So I took all 279 Festival races from 2017 to 2026 and every runner in them, and asked of each trend: how many runners fitted it, how many won, and what would backing all of them at SP have made?

Cheltenham Festival stats: what the whole Festival says

Everything loses at SP; that's the bookies' margin. The useful question is which trends lose least, and the stand-out is the Irish one: Irish-trained runners were 45% of the runners, won 64% of the races (179 of 279) and lost only 5% of stakes. British-trained runners lost 41%. Winning last time out lifts the strike rate but not the profit: the market already knows.

The tables follow the 2026 running order; the 2027 order wasn't published when I wrote this (5 October 2026). The preview itself, with the trials, is on my Cheltenham Festival tips page.

Cheltenham Festival trends day 1: Champion Day (Tuesday 16 March 2027)

Day 1 shows the widest gap between the championship races and the handicaps: the two Grade 1 hurdles have been kind to the market, the Fred Winter and the Ultima haven't.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting, and four favourites won (-2.1pts at SP). Eight of the ten won last time out, but so did 54% of the runners (61 of 114, 2018-2026) and backing all of them lost 22.0pts. That's the base rate, not a trend. Six-year-olds won six from 60 runners; five-year-olds three from 54.

Arkle Novices' Chase

Favourites won six of ten (+3.1pts). The age trend is one of the few on the card that does separate the winners: six-year-olds won seven times from only 21 runners, a quarter of the fields, for +22.9pts. Take out Put The Kettle On at 16/1 and it's still +5.9pts. Seven-year-olds won twice from 37 (-34.3pts). Two mares won it: Put The Kettle On in 2020 and Kargese in 2026.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

A proper lottery. One favourite in ten, and only three winners from the first three in the betting. Irish yards won nine of ten from 47% of the runners, and backing all 101 Irish runners made +87.5pts. Nearly all of that is Jeff Kidder at 80/1 in 2021; without him it's +6.5pts. Eight of the ten winners had run 31-60 days before.

Ultima Handicap Chase

No Irish-trained winner in ten runnings, from 38 Irish runners (17% of the field). It's a British race. Eight of the ten winners went off between 9/2 and 10/1, and favourites won three (+7.0pts, stakes split between joint favourites). Eight- and nine-year-olds won seven of ten, but they were 55% of the runners, so that one's mostly base rate. Winning marks ranged from 127 to 155.

Champion Hurdle

The market's best race of the week: seven favourites in ten (+3.7pts). Nine of the ten won last time out. From 2018 to 2026, last-time-out winners made up 47% of the runners and returned +12.3pts, but Golden Ace at 25/1 in 2025 is most of that (-13.7pts without her). Mares won five of the ten. My Champion Hurdle preview takes the trials and the history further back.

Plate Handicap Chase

The best favourite record of the big handicaps: five winners from ten (+11.6pts). Last-time-out winners are also worth a look here. From 2018 to 2026 they were only 33 of 190 runners (17%) but won six of the nine runnings, for +14.1pts (-6.9pts without Seddon at 20/1). Six of the ten winners carried 11-0 or less, from 59% of the runners: base rate. Marks and weights get their own page in my Cheltenham Festival handicap tips.

National Hunt Chase

Handle with care: this was an amateur riders' novices' chase until 2024 (professionals rode in 2021, when amateurs were kept out of the Festival) and has been a novices' handicap chase since 2025, so only two renewals are like-for-like (handicap marks shown for those). Irish yards won seven of ten from 36% of the runners, which roughly broke even (-1.2pts). Seven-year-olds won six from 64 runners. None of the 38 runners who'd raced within 30 days won.

Day 2 trends: Ladies Day (Wednesday 17 March 2027)

Turners Novices' Hurdle (Baring Bingham)

Neptune, Ballymore, Gallagher, now Turners: same race. Nine of ten winners won last time out. So did half the runners (53 of 107, 2018-2026), and backing them lost 27.5pts. Six-year-olds won eight of ten from 57% of the runners. Seven winners went off 4/1 or shorter, and favourites won five (-1.0pts).

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

The old RSA. Seven-year-olds won seven of ten, but they were 56% of the runners and lost 9.4pts between them: base rate. Favourites won five (+4.1pts) and seven winners were 4/1 or shorter. The two biggest winning prices in the period are the two most recent: Lecky Watson at 20/1 in 2025 and Kitzbuhel at 11/1 in 2026.

BetMGM Cup Handicap Hurdle (Coral Cup)

Run as the Coral Cup until 2025. Only two favourites in ten, three winners from the first three in the betting, and three at 22/1 or bigger. Only two of the ten winners won last time out. Seven-year-olds won six from 65 runners (+28.5pts), but take away Heaven Help Us at 33/1 and that's -5.5pts.

Cross Country Chase

Nine renewals (the 2024 race was abandoned), and a limited handicap since 2025. Irish yards won eight of nine from 55% of the runners, yet backing all of them lost 37.1pts, because the Irish winners were mostly short in the betting. Eight of nine winners came from the first three in the market, and four favourites won (+2.4pts); the one from outside the top three was Final Orders in 2026. The only non-Irish winner was Easysland, French-trained, in 2020. Specialists rule: Tiger Roll and Delta Work won five between them.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Here's a trend that runs the other way. Only two of the ten winners won last time out, and from 2018 to 2026 last-time-out winners won once from 21 runners (-19.6pts). Nine winners came from the first three in the betting, but only three favourites won (-4.4pts). Eight- and nine-year-olds won eight of ten from 61% of the runners. Irish runners won seven from 42% of the runners (+12.2pts, almost all from Special Tiara's 11/1).

Grand Annual Handicap Chase

The bookies' favourite race. One winning favourite in ten, two winners from the first three in the betting, and four at 22/1 or bigger, two of them 66/1 (Croco Bay in 2019 and Martator in 2026). Backing every runner for ten years would have made +53.5pts at SP. Crazy right? It's also -13.5pts without Croco Bay, which is the Festival handicap lottery in one line. Only one winner had won last time out.

Champion Bumper

The classic base-rate trap. All ten winners won last time out and all ten were Irish-trained. It sounds like a system until you count the runners: 70% of them won last time out (121 of 172, 2018-2026) and backing them lost 50.5pts; Irish runners were half the field and lost 18.5pts. Five-year-olds won eight from two-thirds of the runners (-62.6pts). Two favourites won in ten years.

Day 3 trends: St Patrick's Thursday (Thursday 18 March 2027)

Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Dawn Run)

All ten winners finished in the first three last time out (six won, four placed). So did 80% of the runners (133 of 166, 2018-2026), so that's base rate again. Six-year-olds won seven from 78 runners (+28.0pts), but it's -13.0pts without White Noise at 40/1 in 2026. Two favourites won in ten.

Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Golden Miller)

A Grade 1 novices' chase until 2024 (JLT, Marsh, then Turners) and a novices' limited handicap since 2025, so the old trends only half apply. Nine of the ten winners came from the first three in the betting. Seven-year-olds won seven from 42 runners (40%), which roughly broke even (-2.3pts). Irish yards won only four of ten, which is low for a novice race at this meeting.

Mares' Hurdle

Irish yards won eight of ten from 54% of the runners but lost 24.4pts. Six winners went off 4/1 or shorter, and four favourites won (-3.3pts). Last-time-out winners won six of nine runnings (2018-2026) from 42% of the runners for +5.2pts, though it's -13.8pts without Marie's Rock at 18/1.

Stayers' Hurdle

Only two favourites and three winners from the first three in the betting, with Lisnagar Oscar (50/1), Sire Du Berlais (33/1) and Home By The Lee (33/1) all winning. Backing every runner made +44.6pts over ten years (-6.4pts without Lisnagar Oscar). Seven-year-olds won six from 33 (+51.6pts), but that's +0.6pts without Lisnagar Oscar. Irish runners won eight from 48% of the field for +58.2pts, and still +24.2pts without one of the two 33/1 winners (-9.8pts without both). That holds up better than most race-level trends here, but eight winners is still a small sample.

Ryanair Chase

Every winner was aged seven to nine, but so were 74% of the runners. All ten winners went off 10/1 or shorter, eight from the first three in the betting, and favourites won four (+0.8pts). Irish yards won eight from 53% of the runners (-11.2pts).

Pertemps Network Final

Only one of the ten winners won last time out, and from 2018 to 2026 the 40 last-time-out winners in the field didn't win once. Horses that had run within 30 days won five from 80 runners (+17.0pts), but three of those winners were 25/1 and it's -9.0pts without Third Wind. Two favourites won in ten.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase

An amateur riders' handicap (professionals rode it in 2021), and it shows in the prices. One last-time-out winner in ten; six of the ten winners had finished second or third. Horses that had run within 30 days won five from 65 runners (29%) for +45.0pts, or +4.0pts without Domesday Book at 40/1 (-37.0pts without Chambard's 40/1 as well).

Cheltenham Festival trends day 4: Gold Cup Day (Friday 19 March 2027)

The Gold Cup, plus the Triumph, the Albert Bartlett and the County, three of the hardest races of the week to call.

Triumph Hurdle

Backing every runner made +79.4pts over ten years, which is almost all Poniros (100/1 in 2025) and Apolon De Charnie (50/1 in 2026). Irish runners made +108.9pts from 60% of the runners, and that drops to +7.9pts without Poniros. Three favourites won (-1.6pts). Both those big-priced winners had been off more than 160 days. Poniros last ran on the Flat.

County Handicap Hurdle

Three winners from the first three in the betting, four at 11/1-20/1 and three at 33/1. Only two of the ten winners won last time out; six finished second or third. Eight-year-olds won three from 25 runners (+43.0pts, +9.0pts without Faivoir at 33/1), but three winners is no sample. Favourites won three (+4.3pts).

Mares' Chase

Only six runnings since it started in 2021. All six winners were Irish-trained, won last time out and went off 4/1 or shorter. Six from six sounds great, but Irish mares were 63% of the runners and lost 15.8pts. With N=6, it tells you very little.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

No favourite has won in ten years, only two winners came from the first three in the betting, and eight went off at 11/1 or bigger. Last-time-out winners were 58% of the runners (2018-2026), won three times and lost 50.0pts. Backing every runner made +42.0pts, or -9.0pts without Minella Indo at 50/1. Six-year-olds won seven from 118 runners.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Every winner was seven or eight. Seven-year-olds won four from 18 runners (+13.9pts, +0.9pts without Al Boum Photo at 12/1), eight-year-olds six from 43 (-13.0pts), and the 60 runners aged nine or older didn't win once. Irish yards won nine of ten from 49% of the runners (-4.1pts). Favourites won five (+4.5pts). The trials and the 20-year picture are on my Cheltenham Gold Cup tips page.

Hunters' Chase

Hunter chasers often run in point-to-points between races under Rules, so last-run figures aren't reliable here; I've shown the field size instead. Ten-year-olds won five from 42 runners (+128.6pts), helped by two 66/1 winners (It Came To Pass in 2020 and Premier Magic in 2023). Only three Irish winners from 34% of the runners. Two favourites won.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

No favourite has won in ten years, and only four winners came from the first three in the betting, although none was bigger than 25/1. Irish yards won eight from half the runners (-38.5pts). Every winner was five, six or seven, from 78% of the runners: base rate.

Favourites, Irish raiders and big-priced winners at the Festival

Favourites. The SP favourite won 86 of 279 races (31%). One point on every favourite, split across joint favourites, lost 27.2pts. In the Grade 1s favourites won 53 of 138 (38%); in the handicaps, 23 of 100. Across all racing, favourites win about a third of the time; my page on how often favourites win has the full numbers.

Irish raiders. Irish yards won more races than British yards in nine of the ten years and tied 14-14 in 2019. The peak was 23-5 in 2021. And with fewer runners: Irish-trained runners were 52% of the Grade 1 fields and won 99 of 138 Grade 1s (72%), and backing all of them in Grade 1s made +60.7pts at SP. That's -40.3pts without Poniros at 100/1, but British runners in the same races lost 421.7pts from 780. In the handicaps British runners outnumbered Irish ones by about three to two, and Irish yards still won 52 of the 100. W P Mullins alone trained 73 of the 279 winners. For the other side of the Irish Sea, see my Irish horse racing tips.

Big prices. 39 of the 279 winners went off at 22/1 or bigger, 22 of them in handicaps. Yet 22/1-plus runners as a group lost 28% of stakes. The money is in the few that are bigger than they should be: my guide to value betting explains why most long shots are poor value.

How I use trends: a filter, never a selection method

Look, I'm essentially a statistics/maths geek. I was a Quantitative Researcher at a Tier 1 investment bank, and the first thing I ask of any number is "out of how many?" Plenty of trends pages never ask it, which is why every number above comes with its runners and its profit or loss.

A trend can cross a horse off my list or make me want a bigger price. It never puts one on the list. If a horse fails a trend that genuinely separates winners from the rest of the field, and the sample isn't tiny, I need to be paid more to take it on. If the trend just mirrors who turned up, like "Irish-trained" in a race where most of the runners are Irish, I ignore it.

Then the price decides. We focus on profit month to month, not win rate. Anyone can talk about high win rates when they tip odds-on horses all day. At Cheltenham I'd rather find an outsider at a proper price than follow a short favourite because a trend says so, and with each-way terms on the big fields, even when they place we can make more than an odds-on shot winning.

In the handicaps I start where my outsiders system starts: horses that have won or come close off a higher weight or mark than they're running off today. Trends come second. Add the stable information and smart money I pass on to members when I have it, and that's the process.

Staking doesn't change because it's Cheltenham. Divide your bank into points (say 1pt = £5 on a £100 bank), don't chase on Friday because Tuesday went wrong, don't go all in on a feeling, and skip any bet you're unsure about. Understanding that losers are a thing is the key to being a winner longer term. Trust the process.

Cheltenham trends FAQs

What are the best Cheltenham Festival trends?

The ones that beat the base rate. Over 2017-2026, Irish-trained runners in Grade 1 races stand out: +60.7pts at SP from 846 runners, or about -5% of stakes without Poniros at 100/1, against -54% for British runners. Most race-level trends, such as last-time-out winners in the Champion Bumper, turn out to be the base rate.

How many favourites win at the Cheltenham Festival?

From 2017 to 2026 the SP favourite won 86 of 279 races, about 31%, or roughly eight or nine a year. Backing them all at SP lost money. The Champion Hurdle (seven in ten) was the best race for favourites; the Albert Bartlett and Martin Pipe had none.

Do Irish horses win more races at Cheltenham?

Yes. Irish-trained horses won 179 of the 279 Festival races from 2017 to 2026 (64%) from 45% of the runners, and out-won British yards in nine of the ten years.

When is the Cheltenham Festival 2027?

Tuesday 16 to Friday 19 March 2027, four days and 28 races, according to The Jockey Club's Festival page.

More in this guide

• Big races calendar: UK and Irish dates and previews
• Cheltenham Festival tips: the race-by-race preview
• Cheltenham Festival handicap tips: marks and weights
• Cheltenham course guide: Old, New and Cross Country
• Grand National trends
• Horse racing betting strategy