Epsom Derby Tips 2027: Preview, the Trials and What Wins at Epsom

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By The Guv'nor · Last updated October 2026

Looking for Epsom Derby tips for 2027? Start with the facts. The race is on Saturday 5 June 2027, with the Oaks the day before. Aidan O'Brien trained 10 of the last 20 winners (2007-2026), 16 of those 20 had their final run in one of four trials, and favourites won 6 of the 19 runnings from 2007 to 2025.

Below you'll find the trials with their 2027 dates, a 20-year winners table, the draw numbers and a quick look at the Oaks. What you won't find is my bet: the Derby tips themselves go to members.

Epsom Derby tips 2027: last year's race and the form lines that matter

Start with what happened in June. The 2026 Derby was run on soft ground and won by Christmas Day (7/1) for Aidan O'Brien and Ronan Whelan, two and three-quarter lengths clear of Maltese Cross (12/1, William Haggas), with James J Braddock (9/1, Joseph O'Brien) third. It was O'Brien's 12th Derby, which is the record.

There was a twist. Benvenuto Cellini, sent off the 3/1 favourite, missed the break and was ruled a non-runner after the race because the stewards found he'd been denied a fair start. Bets on him were refunded and winning bets took a 25p in the pound Rule 4 deduction. Crazy right? It's also why the favourite stats below stop at 2025.

The 2027 Derby horses are the two-year-olds of 2026, so the form lines are still being written. Two Group 1s matter most this autumn: the Dewhurst at Newmarket's Future Champions Festival (9-10 October 2026) and the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster (Saturday 24 October 2026).

How much has juvenile form mattered? Five of the last 20 Derby winners had won a Group 1 at two: New Approach and City of Troy won the Dewhurst, while Authorized, Camelot and Auguste Rodin won the race now called the Futurity Trophy (Authorized's was run at Newbury as the Racing Post Trophy). At the other end, Ruler of the World never ran at two, and Golden Horn, Adayar and Desert Crown went into the winter with nothing better than a maiden win at Nottingham.

So the juvenile Group 1s are a pointer, not a filter: 15 of the 20 winners hadn't won one.

Derby trials 2027: the races that matter and their dates

I checked the final run before Epsom of every Derby winner from 2007 to 2026. Four races account for 16 of the 20.

The 2000 Guineas: the biggest route, but read the result carefully

Six winners came straight from the 2000 Guineas (Saturday 1 May 2027), more than from any other race. Only Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012) actually won it. Australia and Masar were third, and City of Troy (9th) and Auguste Rodin (12th) were well beaten over a mile before winning at Epsom. A bad Guineas run from a horse bred to stay a mile and a half is not the end of the story.

Chester and Lingfield: the stamina tests

The Chester Vase is run over about a mile and a half on a tight track, and it gave us Ruler of the World (2013), Wings of Eagles (second there, then 40/1 at Epsom in 2017) and Lambourn (2025). The track's quirks are in my Chester draw bias guide. Lingfield's Derby Trial produced Anthony Van Dyck (2019) and Adayar, who was beaten there in 2021.

York's Dante: three winners doubled up at Epsom

Three Dante winners went on to win the Derby (Authorized, Golden Horn and Desert Crown). Workforce was second in it, and Christmas Day was third in it last May. York's 2027 Dante Festival runs Wednesday 12 to Friday 14 May, with the Dante on the Thursday. My York draw bias page covers the course.

Leopardstown: the Ballysax, not the Derby Trial

No Derby winner in my 20 years had Leopardstown's Derby Trial as his final run. Harzand (2016) and Christmas Day (2026) both won the Ballysax there in April, and Harzand went straight on to Epsom. Leopardstown hadn't published its 2027 trial dates when I checked.

Epsom's hill, the camber and the draw

The Derby is run over about a mile and a half: 1m 4f 6y (roughly 2,420 metres) on Epsom's facts page, 1m 4f 10y on its main Derby page. The course is left-handed and roughly U-shaped rather than a full circuit. Epsom says the Derby climbs the equivalent height of Nelson's Column, before the field swings left and downhill round Tattenham Corner into a straight of about half a mile, which runs mostly downhill until a sharp rise in the last hundred yards.

Then there's the camber people talk about in the straight. I couldn't find an official measurement of it, so I won't dress it up: it's one more thing a horse has to cope with on its first visit, and you only find out on the day.

Does the Derby draw matter?

I counted every runner's stall in the 20 runnings from 2007 to 2026, using the official draw in the result (283 runners).

That's a slight lean towards the higher stalls, but with 20 winners, swap a couple of results and it's gone. Epsom's own Derby draw page, which counts winners back to 1967, calls stall 10 the "hot box" with 10 wins from 54 races. In my 20 years it won four times (2013, 2018, 2023 and 2025) from the 19 races with a runner in it. Interesting, but not a reason to back a horse.

For how I test draw numbers properly, see my draw bias guide.

Epsom Derby trends: 20 years, with the sample sizes

Everything in this section comes from this table.

Favourites: 6 winners from 19 runnings

From 2007 to 2025, six favourites won. A 1pt level stake on the favourite every year at SP returned 16.4 points for 19 staked, so -2.6 points. Over the last ten of those (2016-2025) it was two winners and -2.5 points. The 2026 favourite was the void Benvenuto Cellini. For the bigger picture across all races, see how often favourites win.

Prices: short ones or proper outsiders

Seven winners were 3/1 or shorter, nine were between 4/1 and 7/1, and four were 16/1 or bigger (Masar, Adayar, Serpentine and Wings of Eagles). None of the 20 went off between 15/2 and 14/1.

The places are where outsiders earn their keep. A horse at 20/1 or bigger finished in the first three in 12 of the 20 runnings, filling 16 of the 60 places. In a non-handicap with eight or more runners, the usual each-way terms are a fifth of the odds for three places (the maths is in my each-way betting guide). Caveat: I haven't compiled every runner's SP, so that's a count of places, not a profit test.

Trainers: one name dominates

Aidan O'Brien trained 10 of the 20 winners, including 7 of the last 10. Irish-trained horses won 13 of the 20, British-trained 6 and French-trained 1. With that much of the race coming out of Ireland, the Irish trials and my Irish horse racing tips page are worth following through the spring.

Form and ground

Eleven of the 20 winners won their final race before Epsom, so nine didn't. Sixteen of the 20 Derbies were run on good or good to firm ground. Last year's soft-ground race was the only one of the 20 on soft, which is a sample of one.

Oaks tips 2027: a quick view of the fillies' Classic

The Oaks is on Friday 4 June 2027, Ladies Day, over the same course and trip as the Derby, for three-year-old fillies. The main trials are the 1000 Guineas (Sunday 2 May), Lingfield's Oaks Trial (Saturday 8 May), York's Musidora (Wednesday 12 May) and Chester's Cheshire Oaks at the May Festival.

Five beaten favourites in a row, two of them at around even money or shorter (Savethelastdance at 5/6, Desert Flower at 11/10). Five races is a tiny sample, so don't build a system on it, but the Oaks hasn't been a race for taking short prices lately.

What I look for in a Derby winner

Look, I'm essentially a statistics and maths geek, so the Derby for me starts with prices and probabilities, not reputations. Most of the field have never raced at Epsom and plenty have never raced this far, so nobody knows for certain who stays and who handles the hill and the camber. That uncertainty is where the value lives.

The numbers above tell me where the market is usually right and where it isn't. Short-priced favourites with proper class win their share, but over 19 runnings backing them blind lost money. Outsiders keep turning up in the places, and an each-way bet at a big price that places can still make more profit than an odds-on shot winning. That's always been my approach, Derby or not.

I also stick to my staking. Big race or not, it's points, not feelings (1pt is £5 on a £100 bank, for example), and I never go all in because Derby day feels special. If I'm not sure about one, I skip it. And if I have stable information or there's smart money moving in the market that week, members hear about it.

If multiples are your thing on Derby day, have a look at my lucky 15 tips post, but that part is up to you. Just remember that understanding that losers are a thing is the key to being a winner longer term. Trust the process over a season, not one race.

My actual Derby selection goes out to Winners Club members on Derby morning.

Price

Price of the service is a fixed £9.99 monthly and that will never change and you can cancel anytime if it's not for you. To break that down for you that's about 32p a day for a whole month or a going to have a McDonalds with a mate. Crazy right?

I've priced it cheap because I want it accessible to absolutely everyone and build a community of winners - If I am honest the £9.99 is just there as a filter if you like so that only serious people sign up. If the paid version isn't for you just yet, then feel free to sign up to the free service.

My promise.

Look, I can't guarantee every tip every day is going to win (anyone that can is a fraudster). But I can promise you that every horse I will tip I am betting on myself and through my data analysis techniques it should be in with a very strong chance of bolting up and winning and over a long enough period you will be profitable.

Here's what some of our paid members have been saying:

Give it a go, what have you got to lose? It's only a tenner a month. Feel free to try out the free version first!

- The Guv'nor

Epsom Derby FAQs

When is the Epsom Derby in 2027?

Saturday 5 June 2027. The Derby Festival runs Friday 4 to Saturday 5 June, with the Oaks on the Friday. The 2027 race time hasn't been published yet.

Who won the Derby in 2026?

Christmas Day, at 7/1, trained by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ronan Whelan, on soft ground on 6 June 2026. The 3/1 favourite Benvenuto Cellini was ruled a non-runner after the race because he'd been denied a fair start.

Can fillies run in the Derby?

Yes. Six fillies have won it, the last being Fifinella in 1916, and the last filly to run was Cape Verdi in 1998, according to Epsom.

More in this guide

• Big races calendar and previews
• Royal Ascot tips and day-by-day preview
• Flat season preview and 2027 dates
• Cheltenham Festival preview
• Grand National tips and each-way angles